The End of an Era: Impact of Halted Russian Gas Transit to the EU

In a significant geopolitical shift, Russian gas has ceased to flow to EU nations via Ukraine following the expiration of a five-year transit agreement. This development is viewed as a long-awaited victory by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who emphasized that Ukraine would not enable Russia to profit from its struggles. As a result, Poland declared the cut-off a blow against Russian influence, while the European Commission noted that the EU was prepared for this transition, with most member states expected to manage the change effectively.

Although the immediate consequences appear minimal, the broader strategic implications for Europe are profound. With this cessation, Russia loses a key European market that previously constituted about €5 billion annually. Prior to the Ukraine invasion in 2022, Russian gas accounted for 40% of EU imports, but this drastically fell to less than 10% in 2023, highlighting the EU’s efforts to diversify energy sources. Notably, Slovakia, which becomes the primary entry point for gas into the EU now, has warned of increased costs due to the need to find alternative routes, stressing that this development could have serious economic impacts on EU member states.

The situation has also sparked tensions between Slovakia and Ukraine, as Slovakia’s Prime Minister threatened to curtail electricity exports to Ukraine, a move that was branded as supporting Russian aggression by Zelensky. Meanwhile, Poland is stepping up support for Ukraine and diversifying its own gas supplies through imports from the U.S., Qatar, and the North Sea.

Moldova is facing acute energy shortages as a result of the halted gas transit, exacerbated by Gazprom’s decision to limit gas supplies to the country, citing unpaid dues—an allegation dismissed by Moldova’s leaders who accused Russia of employing energy as a tool for political leverage. Moldova’s dependence on Russian gas is critical since much of its electricity comes from Russian-fueled power plants, which has now put pressure on the country’s energy infrastructure, especially in the breakaway territory of Transnistria.

The EU has responded by securing alternative gas supplies from liquefied natural gas (LNG) sources such as Qatar and the U.S., as well as Norwegian pipelines, reinforcing the bloc’s commitment to reducing reliance on Russian energy. Plans are being drafted to entirely replace gas flows through Ukraine, signaling a pivotal shift in Europe’s energy landscape.