Teeing Off for Trade: Can Vietnam Leverage Golf Diplomacy to Mitigate Trump’s Tariffs?

With the looming threat of new tariffs from President Donald Trump, Vietnam finds itself in a precarious position amidst global economic tensions. The upcoming ‘Liberation Day in America’ marks a crucial deadline for reciprocal tariffs, following a recent imposition of 25% import taxes on foreign car manufacturers. As a nation with a significant trade deficit with the U.S., Vietnam is particularly vulnerable, despite being a haven for companies relocating from China to sidestep previous tariffs.

Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has signaled a willingness to engage diplomatically by offering to play golf with Trump, a move reminiscent of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s successful relationship-building through the sport. This potential ‘golf diplomacy’ coincides with Trump Organization’s plans to invest heavily in Vietnamese golf-related infrastructure, including courses and resorts.

Despite Trump’s past criticisms of Vietnam as a trade actor “worse than China”, he has not yet directly targeted Vietnam with tariffs, leaving analysts to speculate on the effectiveness of Vietnam’s diplomatic strategies. Vietnam’s approach to U.S. relations—termed ‘bamboo diplomacy’—aims for adaptability and cooperation, evidenced by recent measures such as allowing SpaceX’s Starlink to operate in Vietnam and lowering tariffs on U.S. imports to improve trade balances.

However, concerns remain about Vietnam’s ties to China, its largest supplier of goods, making it a complicated player in the trade game, especially as U.S.-China tensions persist. The anticipation of tariffs raises fears of economic consequences for both Vietnamese manufacturers and U.S. companies operating in Vietnam, including major brands like Apple and Nike.

Antonio Norris, a consultant, notes the precarious balance Vietnam is trying to maintain amid U.S. pressures, particularly concerning ‘trans-shipments’ of Chinese goods. As the deadline for new tariffs approaches, it remains uncertain whether Vietnam’s golf diplomacy will yield the desired outcomes or if it can successfully navigate the complex dynamics of U.S.-Vietnam relations.