Can Golf Diplomacy Shield Vietnam from Trump's Trade Tariffs?

Countries worldwide are anticipating Donald Trump’s imminent implementation of tariffs, particularly affecting nations with significant trade relationships with the US, such as Vietnam. With a notable trade deficit and having recently attracted many businesses relocating from China, Vietnam finds itself in a precarious position. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s light-hearted suggestion to engage in golf with Trump could embody a diplomatic strategy, especially as the Trump Organization plans investments in Vietnamese golf courses and real estate.

Despite Trump’s past criticism labeling Vietnam as a ‘worse than China’ trading partner, Vietnam has thus far avoided direct tariffs, though its trade deficit is severe. Observers suggest that while personal rapport may play a role in negotiations, Trump’s uncompromising stance on trade may overshadow this. In response to potential tariffs, Vietnam has signaled openness to trade with the US and is adopting measures such as lowering tariffs on US imports and allowing influential American companies such as SpaceX to operate within its borders.

Vietnam’s carefully crafted approach, dubbed ‘bamboo diplomacy,’ aims to remain flexible and responsive to foreign pressures. Analysts point out that increasing US scrutiny over trade balances and trans-shipments of Chinese goods through Vietnam may signal looming tariffs. Furthermore, the complexity arises with Vietnam being a thriving recipient of Chinese investments; this dynamic complicates attempts to mitigate US tariffs.

Business leaders express concern over job losses due to looming tariffs, even as US manufacturers benefit significantly from operations in Vietnam. Moreover, the anticipated tariffs could disrupt American businesses that have relocated to Vietnam, including major players like Apple and Nike. As Vietnam navigates the tricky waters of international trade, it remains to be seen whether engaging Trump in golf could yield a beneficial outcome or if the new tariffs will materialize, dramatically transforming the trade dynamics.